Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
